Hanlon’s Razor reminds us that we do not know what the intent of others is; we assume it. When we assume others are acting with malice, the dynamic between us is defensive and strained. We struggle to trust. This is the opposite of Hanlon’s Razor. If we implement Hanlon’s Razor, it can help us see the world in a better light and can improve our relationships.
Hanlon’s Razor is a heuristic for decision making. Used throughout the ages but coined more recently by Robert J. Hanlon, this mental model says, “never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by neglect.” More simply stated, the world is not out to get you. People do things all the time without considering how it will impact others. That doesn’t mean they want to inflict harm on others, they are just ignorant about the knock-on effects of their decision and whom it impacts.
Applying Hanlon’s Razor to our personal and business lives yields tremendous benefits. It reduces paranoia and anxiety. We give people the benefit of the doubt, which in turn provides us the opportunity to connect with them. We are better able to sympathize and empathize with them.
When it comes to Hanlon’s Razor, it’s the intent that is important, not necessarily the action.
Stupidity is the same as evil if you judge by the results.
Margaret Atwood
The Effects of Hanlon’s Razor on Our Latticework
Hanlon’s Razor is perfectly useful on its own. However, it is fascinating to observe the effect this mental model has on other parts of our latticework of knowledge.
Following Incentives
Hanlon’s Razor allows us to consider the likelihood that someone acted out of spite toward us. Once we discount the notion that someone wronged us intentionally, we can look for reasons why they did what they did. What incentivized them to behave that way? We start to look at the bigger picture and can see the strings of influence in their lives.
Confirmation Bias
We all have a tendency to seek information that confirms what we already believe to be true. Confirmation bias produces large blind spots in our logic. Hanlon’s Razor can mitigate its effects when it comes to how we interpret other people. If we believe someone to be evil, corrupt, or rude, we look for behaviors that confirm those beliefs. But Hanlon’s Razor forces us to reconsider. Are they truly evil? Or are they just ignorant?
Projection
We can project ourselves and our situations onto others, even though we may not know anything about them. Doing so makes us feel secure in ourselves. We can delude ourselves into thinking we are on a moral high ground when people behave in a manner in which we think that we would not.
We can also falsely attribute our flaws to someone else. This practice bolsters the ego’s need to feel important and free from guilt or shame.
By using Hanlon’s Razor, we can alleviate both forms of projection because this mental model requires us to reconsider why others do what they do.
Scenarios for Hanlon’s Razor
Hanlon’s Razor applies to all areas in life. From a colleague always showing up late to your meeting to a significant other not being as responsive as you’d like, there are many assumptions that can be made as to the intent behind their actions. Here are a few examples to help flesh out the practice of Hanlon’s Razor in life.
Military
Assuming the best in others is important in our individual lives, but it is substantially more powerful in organizations that have the ability to forever change the lives of millions (or billions). That’s where the importance of decision making in times of conflict comes in. One of the best known and celebrated people who used Hanlon’s Razor in an emotionally charged time of conflict to save the world as we know it is Vasili Alexandrovich Arkhipov.
Arkhipov was a Russian sailor on board the Soviet submarine B-59 near Cuba in October 1962, during the height of the Cuban missile crisis. American destroyers and Russian submarines were in a standoff in international waters near Cuba. The U.S. messaged that they were dropping non-lethal blank depth charges to force submarines to the surface. The problem was that Arkhipov’s submarine was radio silent and didn’t get the message. What was worse was that the B-59 Russian submarine had a nuclear torpedo with clearance to use it if necessary. So when the U.S. started dropping the blank charges, the Russians thought they were being fired upon. While others on board were in favor of firing the nuclear torpedo, Arkhipov kept a cool head. He considered the intent of the Americans and the consequences of firing a nuclear weapon. From a global risk/reward perspective, it was far better to assume the Americans made a mistake or were not trying to destroy their submarine.
Thanks to Arkhipov, the torpedo was never fired. Instead, the submarine surfaced and returned to Russia. The world we know today is because of Arkhipov. In highly emotionally charged times and in an uncomfortable environment, he chose to not assume malicious intent. Hanlon’s Razor saved the world.
Negotiations
Formal negotiations are tricky situations where each party is wary of the other. Negotiations are oftentimes viewed as a zero sum game: one party will win while the other loses. This is an illusion; winning or losing is not mutually exclusive to one party. But believing it is fuels the suspicion around the motives of the other party and hampers the process of coming to an agreement.
If we do not consider Hanlon’s Razor in negotiations, we likely will believe that the other party is trying to take everything and give nothing. We might think that their terms are maliciously conceived. This is a major obstacle that a mediator has to overcome to make the conversation productive.
Two sides using Hanlon’s Razor during a negotiation are much more likely to understand where the other is coming from. This in turn helps both sides selectively concede in some areas for gains in others.
Work
Strategic alliances and collaboration are the basis for a lot of professional services. This is true within a company as well as between organizations. The architecture, engineering, construction (AEC) industry provides one of the best examples for this need to collaborate effectively. Every project requires the alliance of many specialties from various companies to design and build a building. The building owner, architects, interior designers, engineers, landscape architects, and contractors collaborate intensely to produce a building that functions how it’s supposed to, is aesthetically pleasing, and within budget. When the project is over, the alliance disbands and new alliances get formed for different projects.
Designing and constructing buildings are complex endeavors that carry a high price tag and liability. Each party is incentivized to reduce their level of liability, and this is usually accomplished by attempting to shift some to other parties. In the absence of Hanlon’s Razor, disputes can easily arise where a tit for tat spiral can quickly unfold. Therefore, Hanlon’s Razor is important when various parties come together to fulfill a common purpose. It becomes vital, however, when those parties come from different perspectives with different incentives.
This is true for relationships with business colleagues as well. Sometimes, it is those whom we work with everyday that we come to expect to behave a certain way towards us. When they don’t behave how we expect, it is easy for us to feel hurt or frustrated. Hanlon’s Razor helps us deal with this issue. We realize that they might not have thought about how what they said might have sounded, or they didn’t respond to an important email because they have a lot of other correspondence happening simultaneously. They weren’t trying to hurt us, they were neglectful because of other influencing circumstances.
Everyday Interactions
We do not know what others are dealing with. As covered previously, it is so easy for us to unconsciously project ourselves and our situations onto others and expect them to behave as if they are the same as we are. They aren’t. Tom Rath, author and a former global consulting leader at Gallup, Inc., has battled significant health issues his whole life and wrote about his experience with Hanlon’s Razor in his book It’s Not About You: A Brief Guide to a Meaningful Life.
Without vision in my left eye, almost everytime I’m in a grocery store, or another crowded public place, I will invariably run into someone if they approach from my left . . . some people likely assume I’m oblivious, not paying attention or worse. Others blame themselves and apologize in order to defuse any tension. However, some people are quick to become enraged, express disgust, or say something rude like, “Watch where you’re going!” If only that were possible. The problem for the latter group is that they are making a choice that works against their own wellbeing. By choosing to not to assume positive intent, they increase their own hostility levels that is likely to carry over for at least hours, if not days. In contrast, those who choose to assume I did not have any bad intent get to move on through their day as usual, or perhaps even feel good for letting me off the hook. You always have a choice of how to respond. Start by assuming the other person has positive intent.
Limits to Hanlon’s Razor
Hanlon’s Razor does not imply that actions never occur due to malice. It does, however, state that when ignorance or neglect are just as reasonable explanations as malice, then ignorance or neglect are much more likely to be the case. The reward for assuming ignorance or neglect over malice is likely to behoove us as well.
But discretion is required. When we indiscriminately apply Hanlon’s Razor to every situation, we risk falling prey to real instances of malice. This is both naïve and lazy.
The solution is to take the context of an action into account. Then subject each scenario to our latticework of past experiences and knowledge of mental models and biases. Expecting to perfectly identify the intentions of others will result in disappointment. Despite our best efforts, we will sometimes be wrong. But understanding Hanlon’s Razor and knowing how to practice it will help us to see the world in a realistically positive light while maintaining the ability to identify hostile behavior.
