MENTAL MODELS
Mental models are a framework of tools to help you think better. Learning to adeptly implement mental models into your everyday thinking will help you avoid the pitfalls of life.
Sticking to that which we understand and avoiding decisions outside of our expertise.
The first basis from which a thing is known, a basic assumption or idea that cannot be deduced any further.
Incentives influence outcomes. Show me the incentive, I’ll show you the outcome.
One should not attribute to malice that which is more easily explained by stupidity or ignorance.
The practice of turning a problem upside down and starting from another point. Invert, always invert.
Simple explanations are more likely to be correct than complicated ones.
Postmortem
Process at the conclusion of an endeavor to analyze elements that were successful and unsuccessful.
Premortem
A type of thought experiment where you imagine an endeavor has failed and you then try to determine what could lead to that failure.
Probabilistic Thinking
Estimating the likelihood of an outcome or various outcomes.
Second-Order Thinking
Considers the knock-on effects of a decision. Basically, determining the effects of effects.
Spectral
Thinking
Considering classifications on a continuum.
Start Then
Optimize
Starting an endeavor helps you overcome the effects of inertia and allows you to fail quickly in order to optimize.
Start with the Definition
Language is fluid and certain words/phrases mean different things to different people. Identify common ground in order to have meaningful conversations.
The Map is not the Territory
Using representations (maps) of complex things is immensely helpful, but limited.
Thought Experiments
A method of speculating on future consequences of decisions made today.
